Biden vs. Trump: Who’s Leading in Polls Election?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the competition between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is intensifying. Several recent polls provide a snapshot of the current state of the race, revealing a close contest with fluctuating leads. This article delves into the latest polling data, highlights key issues influencing voter preferences, and examines the potential impact of third-party candidates.

Current Polling Overview

Recent national polls indicate a highly competitive race between Biden and Trump. According to Emerson College Polling, Trump holds a slight edge over Biden with 46% support compared to Biden’s 45%​ (Emerson Polling)​. This narrow margin underscores the volatility and unpredictability of the upcoming election. Similarly, data from RealClearPolitics shows Trump leading by 1 percentage point in their aggregated polls​ (RealClearPolling)​.

Read More: The Waning Power of Trump’s Endorsement

Key Battleground States

The outcome of the 2024 election will likely hinge on key battleground states. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia are once again at the forefront of the electoral map. Polling data from these states shows varying leads, with some favoring Biden and others Trump. For instance, in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Biden maintains a slight advantage, whereas Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona​ (RealClearPolling)​​ (Race to the WH)​.

Voter Issues and Sentiment

Voter concerns and sentiments are pivotal in shaping the election landscape. According to the Emerson poll, the economy remains the most critical issue for voters, with 42% identifying it as their top concern. This is followed by immigration, threats to democracy, and healthcare​ (Emerson Polling)​. Biden’s handling of the economy and immigration policies has received mixed reviews, influencing his approval ratings and overall support.

Biden’s job approval stands at 37%, with a disapproval rating of 53%​ (Emerson Polling)​. These figures reflect voter dissatisfaction with certain aspects of his administration, which Trump’s campaign is likely to exploit. Conversely, Trump faces his own challenges, including legal troubles and public opinion on his criminal convictions, which remain divisive issues among voters.

Impact of Third-Party Candidates

The presence of third-party candidates can significantly alter the dynamics of the Biden-Trump race. When third-party options like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are included in polling, both Biden and Trump see a decrease in their support. Specifically, Trump’s support drops by two points to 44%, while Biden’s drops more substantially by seven points to 38%​ (Emerson Polling)​. This shift underscores the potential for third-party candidates to siphon votes from the major party candidates, possibly affecting the overall outcome.

Read More: Who is Selected by Colorado Voters for GOP House?

Upcoming Debates and Campaign Strategies

With the first presidential debate just days away, both campaigns are gearing up to make their case to the American public. The debates are expected to be crucial in swaying undecided voters and solidifying the support of their respective bases. Historically, debates have played a significant role in influencing voter perceptions and can lead to substantial shifts in polling numbers.

Trump’s campaign is likely to focus on economic issues, immigration, and criticism of Biden’s policies, while Biden’s team will emphasize their achievements, handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and plans for future economic recovery and social programs. Both candidates will need to address their vulnerabilities and counteract the negative narratives propagated by their opponents.


As the 2024 presidential election draws nearer, the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump remains tightly contested. Current polling data suggests a competitive battle with narrow margins in both national and battleground state polls. Voter concerns, particularly regarding the economy and immigration, will play a pivotal role in shaping the election outcome. Additionally, the influence of third-party candidates and the impact of upcoming debates add layers of complexity to an already unpredictable race. As the campaigns intensify, both candidates will need to strategically navigate these challenges to secure a victory in November.

For the latest updates on the 2024 presidential election polls, visit RealClearPolitics, 270toWin, and Race to the WH​ (270toWin.com)​​ (RealClearPolling)​​ (Race to the WH)​.

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